Disturbance regimes drive widespread plant range disequilibrium in Europe alongside climate change

Species distributions often fail to match climatically suitable areas, resulting in range disequilibrium. Although recent studies have focused on mismatches arising from lags in biotic responses to climate change (for example, extinction and colonization lags), disturbance processes may also determine whether species occupy otherwise climatically suitable areas, for example, by altering vegetation structure and light regimes. Here we assess climate-change and disturbance-driven disequilibrium for 3,047 vascular plant species across Europe using species distribution models and >1.1 million vegetation plots. Almost all species (99%) show
disturbance-driven disequilibrium, revealing mismatches that are strongly structured along disturbance gradients, consistent with alternative vegetation states. We identified disequilibrium associated with recent climate change in 52% of species, with ranges best predicted by climates 10–18 years before sampling and most pronounced among closed-canopy species, probably reflecting under-canopy microclimatic buffering. These findings demonstrate that climate change and disturbance jointly shape widespread disequilibrium in European plant distributions, with disturbance regimes strongly structuring the realization of climatic suitability across contemporary landscapes. Accounting for both disturbance regimes and temporal lags in climate response is therefore essential for improving
biodiversity forecasts and guiding conservation strategies.

Sean Pang, Robert Buitenwerf, Jens-Christian Svenning

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03119-w